NFC East
Overall, there’s no team that has improved by leaps and
bounds. Philadelphia has a healthy and
determined Donovan McNabb back, Dallas must wait to see if Tony Romo can put the infamous drop in Seattle behind him,
Washington has Jason Campbell starting his first full season at quarterback,
and New York is without Tiki Barber for the first
time in a long time and must see if Brandon Jacobs can evolve into the
playmaker he showed signs of being last season.
Philadelphia – The Philadelphia Eagles managed to come back
to win their final 5 games to finish at 10-6 atop the NFC East as the rest of
the division destroyed itself. After the
first round of the playoffs, Philadelphia,
under backup quarterback Jeff Garcia, was the last team still standing from
that division.
They even gave the Saints a game in the Big Easy. Just ask Reggie Bush. The Eagles’ schedule seems to start off as
easy as you could want it. They figure
to go at least 3-1 against Green Bay, Washington, Detroit,
and the Giants. Their bye week doesn’t
precede any of the big matchups against the Bears,
Patriots or Seahawks (the latter two coming on consecutive weeks), but they
also don’t have to travel any further west than Minneapolis
or Dallas. Overall, this really doesn’t seem like a
first-place schedule, mainly because they match up well against the Bears and
get the Seahawks at home.
What I’m Sold On: Donovan
McNabb is now officially in the prime of his career. He’s been through it all and he’s got the
game figured out. There is also cohesion
in the locker room; a full year without the Terrell Owens saga has put McNabb
back as the undisputed leader. The
Eagles secondary is still the best unit in the NFL. Brian Westbrook is still a triple-threat
playmaker.
What I’m Not: The run
defense has looked a little soft in places during the preseason. Donté Stallworth to New England
may have left the receiving corps without a true deep threat. Should McNabb go down again, there’s no one
who will fill the void and rescue the season.
Prediction: 11-5 record, 1st in NFC East, 2nd
seed in NFC
Dallas – Much of
the focus on this team is going to be on 2nd-year quarterback Tony Romo, who is now the main man as Drew Bledsoe has
retired. The biggest absence on this
team may very well be embattled head coach Bill Parcells. He is now replaced by (occasional) veteran
head coach Wade Phillips, who has gravitated from team to team (Dallas being his eighth)
in various forms of defensive lines coach, defensive coordinator, and head
coaching positions. Most notably, he
coached two Elway-led Broncos teams to 9-7 and 7-9
records respectively in 1993 and 1994, then, four years later, let the popular
Doug Flutie edition of the Buffalo Bills to a couple
of first round playoff losses. His last
head coaching gig was as the head of the Atlanta Falcons in 2003. This should not instill fans of Big D with a
lot of confidence. Schedule-wise, they
seem to have gotten a couple of breaks (New England and St. Louis at home, a bye week before their visit to Philadelphia). They also play on consecutive Thursdays
(Thanksgiving and the week after).
What I’m Sold On:
Roy Williams in the secondary, DeMarcus Ware at
linebacker. Watch out. Julius Jones and Marion Barber III make an
effective 1-2 punch to help set up the passing game. Or, if the passing game has already been
established, then they’ll be able to exploit defenses that way. If Romo goes down,
Brad Johnson will do just fine with the fine receivers Dallas has amassed.
What I’m Not: The Cowboys can’t find a reliable kicker to save
their collective grandma. Now the Nick
Folk experiment begins. Will he be Billy
Cundiff? Jose
Cortez? Shane Suisham? Mike Vanderjagt? Or will he be semi-reliable like the Steelers
Jeff Reed…or perhaps the next Adam Vinatieri? Can a coach like Wade Phillips, whose last
three seasons were spent coaching the San Diego Chargers under big-game choker
Marty Schottenheimer, prove he is any more effective
in big games? He is 0-3 lifetime in the
playoffs. While that’s not quite Jim
Mora, it’s certainly not a good sign.
Still, Phillips inherited a talented team, and that might be good for a
playoff berth.
Prediction: 9-7 record, 2nd in NFC East, 6th
seed in NFC
NY Giants – I
think, deep down, Tom Coughlin is not happy that the Giants squeaked into the
playoffs last year, especially after the Eagles squeaked past them in the Wild
Card round. This team is not the
disciplined bunch a coach like him needs.
Starting with players talking retirement in midseason, to team leaders holding
out of training camp, this isn’t how he likes to work. Eli Manning is not the player, or the leader,
that his brother is, and his dismal 6.22 YPA (per ESPN) does not bode well for
opening up the running game for their talented new #1 back Brandon Jacobs who
averages about 4.0 yards-per-carry. The
addition of Reuben Droughns could almost make up for Tiki Barber’s absence.
What will make this a long season for Giants fans is the (relatively
speaking) young defense. Even with Strahan back, he may need a couple of games to get back
into game shape, and a slow start is something that the New York Football
Giants cannot afford. Three of their
first four games are against divisional foes.
What I’m sold on: Plaxico Burress is still a premier deep threat receiver. If Eli can hit him. Jeremy Shockey is
as reliable as any tight end over the middle.
If Eli can hit him. Jacobs and Droughns
should be able to compensate for an offensive line which can be spotty at
times.
What I’m not: The young defense wasn’t terribly impressive
getting to the quarterback, generating only 32 sacks. Eli Manning’s completion percentage was less
than 60% last season, putting him towards the bottom. Couple that with his aforementioned low YPA,
that doesn’t speak well for a potent passing attack. Kicker Jeff Feagles
was 9-16 in attempts over 40 yards. You
have to be a little more reliable that that in this league.
Prediction: 7-9 record, 3rd in NFC East,
misses playoffs
Washington –
Daniel Snyder is like the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Dave Littlefield, except that he
makes mistakes with a big
budget. No truly notable signings that I
was aware of after a big spending spree last season that put Washington up against the salary cap. Clinton Portis is
always a threat if he gets a head of downhill steam. If defenses can contain him, however, Jason
Campbell, in his first full season as starting quarterback, will have to win
the games. He has one of the best
receiving corps in the NFL, but the presumption is that if opposing defenses
are getting to Portis, they’re getting fair
penetration to begin with. Defensively, Washington has some
standouts and some no-names, but no different than last year, when they lost 6
of the ten games they played that were decided by 6 or
fewer points.
What I’m sold on: Stopping a healthy Portis
is still a tall task. Receivers on this
team will get open. The defense will
keep the ‘skins in games longer than they deserve to be.
What I’m not: The team has no true leader. Joe Gibbs seems to be going through the
motions on the sideline. Mark Brunell has tried to step up, but we all think of him as Jacksonville’s
leader. Shane Suisham
is the go-to guy for the field goals.
He’s played in 11 games total the last 2 years. He’ll be the biggest key in those tight
games. That doesn’t bode well.
Prediction: 6-10 record, 4th in NFC East,
misses playoffs
NFC North
Overall, this is still the weakest division in the National
Football League, but it has improved over the past two years. Chicago
is still the team to beat, boasting one of the best defensive units in the
league the past few years. A Brett Favre-led Green
Bay team should never be totally excluded, though it
seems he’s fallen off a couple of steps.
Detroit
has some excitement on offense, but when Matt Millen picks a wide receiver in
the first round, even if it is Calvin Johnson, bad things happen. Minnesota
may be this year’s Oakland Raiders. But
that will rest completely on quarterback Tavaris
Jackson.
Chicago
– Jerry Angelo has built one of the elite defenses of the decade since coming
over from Tampa Bay.
Obviously, after helping create a unit that won the big one in 2000, he
has a system. There aren’t very many
defensive starters that wouldn’t get ProBowl
consideration. The Bears may have fared
better in the Superbowl had Left Defensive Tackle
Tommie Harris stayed healthy. Chicago gave up an
average of 12.5 points per game over the first 12 (that even accounts for
points scored against the Bears’ offense).
Then Harris got hurt, and they gave up an average of 26.25 points per
game, all against teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. In the playoffs, they gave up 22.3 points per
game. I don’t think this is a
coincidence. Mike Brown is healthy again
at free safety after playing only the first 6 games, and they acquired Adam Archuleta from Washington at strong
safety. Yeah. Look out.
Their toughest games are opening in San Diego,
visiting Philly and Seattle
in weeks 7 & 11, and closing against the Saints at the Saucer. The rest of this season could be a cakewalk.
What I’m sold on:
Devin Hester is a guy you don’t want to have the ball, if you’re the other
team. The defense is ready to lead the
league in fewest points allowed. I laud
Tommie Harris above, but how can you look past Urlacher? Briggs?
Rex Grossman has a cannon for an arm.
What I’m not: Grossman’s completion percentage and YPA
aren’t sparkling. His work ethic has
been called into question even before the Superbowl,
then rumors flew that he didn’t do his homework on the Colts. Cedric Benson had Thomas Jones to split time
with. Now, he’s the show, with Adrian
Peterson backing him up. Granted they both have career averages of over 4 yards per carry,
but they have combined for fewer than 250 attempts.
Prediction: 11-5 record, 1st in NFC North, 3rd
seed in NFC
Green
Bay – It’s gotta kill Green Bay fans to know
that the NFC North is a Bears world, and they’re just living in it. Of course, the tables used to be turned less
than 10 years ago. Green Bay is still rebuilding. Their defense is beginning to take shape
again, but their running backs are all less than 100% entering the season. Three of their first five games are against Philadelphia, San Diego,
and Chicago,
but they’re all at home. If they can
surprise one or more of those teams (maybe a bit of Brett Favre
magic?), Green Bay’s
schedule gets a little easier after the bye (week 7).
What I’m Sold On: Brett Favre has some
receivers who’ve proven reliable over the years, most notably Bubba Franks and
Donald Driver.
What I’m Not: Should Brett
Favre go down, there has been very little chance for
heir-apparent Aaron Rodgers to get quality experience. This will be an issue as long as Favre stays active and unretired. Picking up former Steeler
John Kuhn to try to bolster the running game also does not bode well. Still, I’m putting them up for 8 wins due to
the four games they play against Minnesota and
Detroit. They might find 4 or 5 wins elsewhere.
Prediction: 8-8 record, 2nd in NFC North,
misses playoffs
Detroit
– Detroit may
finally have enough wide receivers, thank you Matt Millen. Enough so that the Lions
should be able to at least double their win total from a pathetic 3 a year ago. Still, you can’t expect Jon Kitna or Rod Marinelli to work miracles. The offense is indeed improved, but at the
expense of a non-descript defense. Their
schedule is comparatively easy, but they still have to play Chicago
twice, host Dallas and Denver,
and visit San Diego and Philadelphia.
And their home game against Tampa
is going to be tough, too.
What I’m Sold On: Kitna can hit
receivers long. His completion
percentage was over 62 percent and his yards per pass average
was a shade better than 7. Tatem Bell and T.J. Duckett could
be an effective rushing tandem. Throw a
healthy Kevin Jones back in, and it looks even better. In a Mike Martz offense, that may be all you
need to outshoot your opponents week-in, week-out. Jason Hanson is still pretty clutch. He missed
only one field goal between 40 and 49 yards last year, making all the other
that were closer. He was even 3 out of 6
attempts from over 50 yards. He’s 37
years old. That’s pretty good.
What I’m Not: Kinta threw
21 TDs but 22 INTs. I’m not sure if it’s a case of him throwing INTs because they had to try to catch up, or if it is that
he threw so many INTs to put the Lions down. I already mentioned that the defense is
suspect. Last year, they gave up the 3rd
most points in the league and the 5th most yards. The Lions front office has done little to
improve the personnel.
Prediction: 7-9 record, 3rd in NFC North,
misses playoffs
Minnesota
– It might be bad karma from “The Love Boat” scandal, but whatever the case, Minnesota should brace
themselves for a long year. Chester
Taylor rushed for over 1,200 yards last year in a quiet surprise season. The loss of veteran signal caller Brad
Johnson will hurt this. Weeks 6 through
9 are going to be the true trial by fire.
At Chicago. At Dallas. Hosting Philadelphia. Hosting San Diego. It won’t be pretty. This may be the quietest the Metrodome has ever been during football season.
What I’m Sold On: Their special teams aren’t terrible. Kicker Ryan Longwell
is pretty consistent. He makes the kicks
he should, and is able to make some of the longer ones. Their returners, Mawelde Moore and Bobby Wade are swift. The secondary may not be bad. Antoine Winfield, Darren Sharper and Mike
Doss, the latter of whom was on the Colts roster last year, are pretty solid.
What I’m Not:
Pretty much anything else. Tavaris Jackson is not only an inexperienced quarterback,
he doesn’t have anyone really to throw to, and he may not have time to find
those limited options. The front seven
is also less than impressive, meaning that the secondary may also be making lots
of tackles on running backs as they get to the second level.
Prediction: 4-12 record, 4th in NFC North,
misses playoffs
NFC West
The Rams just signed Mark Bulger
to a lucrative contract extension and have discovered a power back of their own
in Steven Jackson that might just help them challenge for the divisional
crown. Seahawks running back Shawn
Alexander no longer has to worry about getting hurt, as the Madden jinx is
passed onto Vince Young. Still, Seattle managed to limp
into the playoffs last season, the beneficiaries of a weak division in the
process of rebuilding. The ‘hawks are
healthy and look to recover from a season that saw both Alexander and
quarterback Matt Hasselbeck injured for semi-lengthy
periods. San
Francisco surprised many by winning 7 games, the last of their wins
coming in overtime on the road against a Denver
team that had a win-and-your-in playoff scenario. Arizona’s
coaching staff is all new. Their
offensive line and defense, meanwhile, are not vastly changed.
St. Louis –
This offense is going to be scary good.
Steven Jackson had over 1,500 yards rushing last year and Mark Bulger threw for just over 4,300 yards, 24 TDs, and just 8 picks all year. Now he’s very rich because of it. The defense still has some issues,
particularly their secondary, but Torry Holt, Issac Bruce, and Drew Bennett make the Rams receiving corp a true force to be reckoned with. Kind of like a “Greatest Show On Turf, Jr.” The
schedule gods weren’t kind, with away games at Baltimore, New Orleans, Dallas
and Cincinnati, but at least two of those are kind of like being at the dome
(Dallas is semi-enclosed).
What I’m Sold On: The offense is truly a two-headed beast, as
mentioned above. Usually when a
quarterback throws for so many yards, it’s the sign that you’re playing from
behind a lot. It St. Louis’ case, it’s more like setting the
pace. They finished 8-8, which was
almost good enough for a playoff berth.
Dante Hall joins the Rams from Kansas
City, and he’s famous for his exciting kick and punt
returns. In an
enclosed stadium 9 games out of the year, he could break more than a
couple for scores, and that many more starting with excellent field
position. St. Louis offense plus short field equals
instant points.
What I’m Not: Three of the four starters in the secondary
are in their third year or less. And
nine-year veteran Corey Chavous doesn’t exactly have
outstanding career numbers. Drafting
(and starting) Adam Carriker from Nebraska should help bolster their pass rush
and run defense almost instantly, but he can only be in so many places at once.
Prediction: 10-6 record, 1st in NFC West, 4th
seed in NFC
Seattle – It’s
difficult to stay at the top of the NFL every year. It’s almost as difficult to stay atop your
division every year. The Seahawks were
dealt a rough hand in 2006, but they were still able to get a home game in the
playoffs (and a break from Tony Romo) and nearly make
the conference title game with an upset in Chicago.
Head Coach Mike Holmgren knows his team, Matt Hasselbeck knows his offense, and former MVP Shawn
Alexander can clearly carry the team when he has to. Seattle has a
tough schedule (Hosting Cincinnati, New Orleans,
Chicago, and Baltimore,
and visiting both Pennsylvania
teams). Their defensive shortcomings
this season could see them on the couch for the first time in 4 years come
January.
What I’m Sold On: Seattle’s offensive line
is still a good unit, though they did allow a total of 49 sacks last year. Shawn Alexander is as good as they come when
healthy, and that should keep the sacks down.
Hasselbeck’s receivers aren’t top tier, but
the offense in which they play helps them look better than they might otherwise
be. Marcus Pollard in at tight end over Jerramy Stevens is a significant upgrade.
What I’m Not: The defense dropped off last year. The yards per game
statistic wasn’t so drastic from their Superbowl
year to last, but their points per
game rose significantly, from 16.9 points per game to 21.3.
Prediction: 8-8 record, 2nd in NFC West, misses
playoffs
San
Francisco – The 49ers turned some heads, especially late in the
season, when they swept the season series against Seattle, and then ending the Denver Broncos’
season in overtime on New Year’s Eve.
Still, it was not a terribly difficult schedule. Then again, their road schedule is relatively
light. They have to visit the Steelers
in week 3. They call on the Giants in
week 7, but that comes after their bye.
They do have to host Baltimore, New Orleans, and Cincinnati,
but that’s a bit more of an advantage than having to travel to face those
teams. Mike Nolan seems to have the
right idea, but he’s still in need of some personnel to make a solid playoff
push. Ashley Lelie
also managed to wind up in San Fran.
Let’s see if he’s a weapon they’ll use frequently.
What I’m Sold On: Alex
Smith is finally getting a chance to develop.
He’s not been awesome, but consistency under center is generally the
only way you become a winner. Frank Gore
has proven to be a dangerous compliment on the ground. Bryant Young is still a stud on the left side
of their base 4-3. Joe Nedney is as reliable a kicker as the Bay Area has had in
years (and I’m looking at you, too, SeeBass).
What I’m Not: The team is not terribly deep on either side of the
ball, but remember the team won more games last season than in the two years
before that combined. Still, Nolan will
discover there are still some holes to be filled and that his team is really
only a year away.
Prediction: 6-10
record, 3rd in NFC West, misses playoffs
Arizona - The Cardinals look
to start over once again, bringing in some ex-Pittsburgh coaches to see what
they can do with a fractured team.
There’s no defense to speak of, and offensive line coach Russ Grimm is
going to miss the spotty line he left in Pittsburgh
after a few games. The schedule gods
also weren’t terribly kind. They have to
travel to Baltimore, Cincinnati,
and New Orleans. And a week after they get beaten up by Baltimore, they have to host Pittsburgh.
What I’m Sold On: Special teams look good. Neil Rackers missed
a step from his pro-bowl season in 2005, but he’s about as consistent as anyone
on that team. Also a
nice move to pick-up Mike Barr from the Pittsburgh Steelers off waivers. He’s been relegated behind Chris Gardocki and Daniel Sepulveda in the Steel City,
despite putting up good numbers, so he finally gets his shot. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan
Boldin are legitimate deep threats at wideout. Perhaps Whisenhunt can find ways to use their talents more
effectively.
What I’m Not: The defense
is not improved from a unit that was toward the bottom in yards per game and
points per game.
Prediction: 5-11 record, 4th in NFC West,
misses playoffs
NFC South
The NFC South became the first division since the realignment
in 2002 to have all four members win at least one division championship with
the impressive show put on by Drew Brees and the New
Orleans Saints. Many experts already
have the Saints etched in stone to repeat as division champs, and penciled in
to get to (or win) Superbowl XLII. My surprise team of the year is Tampa Bay. Not that I think they’ll win it all, but I
see a roster I really like on both sides of the ball. I also don’t think Jon Gruden
is a coach who you can keep down for long.
Not to say that New Orleans
is going to fall off the map. They have
retained most of their core players, but their schedule will be a bit more
trying. Atlanta did well without Michael Vick, but
with all of that drama keeping the most exciting player in the league off the
roster, they have to turn to Joey Harrington.
He has some weapons and is accustomed to playing in a dome, but the
elusiveness of Vick is going to be missed.
Carolina
is expected to rebound, but Jake Delhomme has become
increasingly impatient at quarterback and that makes it difficult for players
to rally around him. I also think the
defense will miss Mike Minter a lot more than even they suspect.
Tampa Bay
– Cadillac Williams hit his sophomore slump, and the Bucs
never could get the quarterback position stable enough to be competitive. The defense also seemed to take a vacation
for the year. Now, the Bucs have a proven player in Jeff Garcia who still seems to
have a year or two left in him to help with the progression of Bruce Gradkowski (who was pretty much thrown to the wolves) and
oft-injured Chris Simms. The schedule
looks to have some tough games, but not in stretches. No short weeks (all Sunday games), no unusual
travel after opening week 1 in Seattle. They also have tough games at Indianapolis and against Jacksonville,
but if they can pull an upset their and go 4-2 in the division, you’re looking
at Tampa’s 3rd
division crown in 6 years.
What I’m Sold On: Jeff Garcia excelled when he had Terrell Owens
in San Francisco. He managed to latch on to Donte
Stallworth and Reggie Brown in Philadelphia and still succeed. He has Joey Galloway and David Boston this
season, and, to a lesser extent, Maurice Stovall. Ike Hilliad is past
his prime, but he’s still good for a clutch catch or two. This should open up some lanes for Cadillac
Williams. On defense, acquiring Cato
June from Indianapolis
was an excellent move for left side linebacker to compliment Derrick Brooks on
the right. Chris Hovan
still has gas in the tank up front, and Ronde Barber
is never to be overlooked in the secondary.
Releasing Simeon Rice indicates to me that they’re very comfortable with
the personnel they have in the secondary.
And did I mention I like Jon Gruden as a
coach?
What I’m Not: I’m not sure how solid the rest of the secondary
is. I was surprised they let go of
Rice. Matt Bryant has not been
consistent from long range, but we all remember the 62-yard boot he kicked to
beat Philadelphia
in week 7.
Prediction: 11-5 record, 1st in NFC South, 1st
seed in NFC
New Orleans –
Sean Peyton’s team took everyone by surprise last season. It may have also been, subconsciously, of
course, a season where people felt sorry for New Orleans, finally getting to
come back to the Superdome and having to remember Hurricane Katrina all over
again. That won’t happen this year. Drew Brees should
have another Pro Bowl season because he has several options at wide receiver
and a couple of talented running backs that should help keep defenses close to
the box, if not in it. The schedule is
nothing to take for granted, either.
They open with two road games, at Indy and at Tampa, then they get
a bye week in Week 4. That bye week
comes between home games, so no added advantage there. They also get to play Jacksonville
and Philadelphia at home, then travel to Chicago to finish the
season.
What I’m Sold On: Drew Brees is for real.
It helps that he has weapons, but until the NFC Championship game, he
made a lot of good decisions all year.
Deuce McAllister is a fantastic compliment. Reggie Bush returning punts is pure
entertainment.
What I’m Not: Olindo Mare is not the kicker he used to be. He was
10-for-18 beyond 40 yards. Perhaps
playing at an indoor venue will help those numbers, but when you’re the team
with the target on your back, you can expect a lot of surprisingly close games,
and your kicker is usually the guy that can win it for you (see Exhibit A: Adam
Vinatieri). New Orleans’ defense only
had 21 takeaways last season. Adding
cornerback Jason David from Indianapolis may
help that a bit, but you saw what happened in Chicago when the offense decided they didn’t
want the ball.
Prediction: 10-6 record, 2nd in NFC South, 5th
seed in NFC
Carolina
– Carolina is
no longer good enough for Keyshawn Johnson. Steve Smith is the only other recognizable
name on the roster in terms of wide receiver, which tells me Johnson didn’t
retire because he wasn’t going to get the ball enough. DeShaun Foster
didn’t quite make 1,000 yards, but might have had he not missed some playing
time. Their advantage may lie in their
out-of-division schedule. Out of their
bye week, they get to host Indianapolis. They also will welcome their 2005 playoff
foil, Seattle. They’ve got to travel to Jacksonville
and St. Louis,
but if the defense can find a way to rebound from the retirement of Mike Minter
(and stay healthy themselves), they might be able to squeak in by playing a lot
of low-scoring games.
What I’m Sold On: Their
front four is fearsome. Julius Peppers, Ma’ake Kemoeatu, Kris Jenkins and Mike Rucker will be a force to
be dealt with. Dan Morgan at middle
linebacker is solid, too. Delhomme and Smith will hook up from time to time. Kicker John Kasay
made very field goal inside 50 yards last year, and went 4-of-7 from 50+. That’s gold.
What I’m Not: I don’t see the running game being potent enough to
open up the passing game. The Panther
secondary has been picked on in preseason, and while I don’t put much stock in
preseason numbers, I don’t really see any diamonds in the rough in that unit. Delhomme needs
another target. He also needs to learn
how to contain his temper.
Prediction: 7-9 record, 3rd in NFC South,
misses playoffs
Atlanta – As
far as their passing game is concerned, some think the absence of Michael Vick
may actually be a good thing. He barely
completed over 50% of his passes, and, despite his elusiveness, was sacked 45
times anyway. Enter Joey
Harrington. He’s actually a step
down. Even though his completion
percentage is better, his yards per pass is not,
making him a wash, if anything, when stacked up next to Vick. But he also does not have that elusive
instinct. This makes Atlanta
very one-dimensional on offense, and will do to Warrick Dunn what the same
situation did to Cadillac Williams in Tampa
last season. A rough bunch of games (at Jacksonville and St.
Louis, vs. Indy and Seattle) in addition to their
already challenging divisional schedule does not bode well for the black and
red.
What I’m Sold On: Warrick
Dunn will certainly give it his all, even if he finds fewer holes. Jerious Norwood is still a
serious weapon. Alge
Crumpler will still catch just above everything that
comes his way. Joe Horn is on the
downside of his career, but he’ll make defenses look twice. Half of their defense looks good. Lawyer Milloy and DeAngelo Hall are reliable in coverage,
Keith Brooking and John Abraham on the front 7 have been known to be play
disrupters.
What I’m Not: Their kicker
appears to be a 2nd year man out of the University of Central
Florida named Matt Prater. I know nothing about him. I guess Morten
Andersen can’t play forever (though he certainly gave it his best shot). Harrington may be running for his life quite
a bit. He didn’t get sacked a lot in Miami, but his protection
may have been a bit better. Still, I
don’t think the team would have done much better even if Vick wasn’t in legal
trouble. The other half of the defense
doesn’t inspire fear in me.
Prediction: 5-11 record, 4th in NFC South,
misses playoffs
AFC East
Of all the divisions in the AFC, the one where football fans
are most certain of the eventual winner is here in the East. The Patriots have built a team the correct
way, and, of the holes they have, their coach finds ways to make the disadvantages
small. If Rache
Caldwell doesn’t drop a ball in the end zone, we’re perhaps talking about the
second team in the Superbowl Era to win 4 Superbowls in 6 years.
And the fact that Caldwell
was released tells me that the Patriots believe that once you’re a choker,
you’re always a choker. Miami has their fourth coach in as many years
years in Cam Cameron (I’m counting Jim Bates at the
end of the ’04 season). They have a
quarterback who has been to the playoffs, a couple of go-to receivers, and a
veteran defense, particularly their front seven, that’s tired of losing. The Jets believe they may have Bill Belichick, Jr. in Eric Mangini
and a resurgent quarterback in Chad Pennington, and the Bills are on their way
to finding out that they really do need a quarterback to compete in this
league.
New
England – In the last three years “New England Patriots” and “Superbowl favorite” have been in close company. And why not? They have one of the game’s elite
quarterbacks, head coaches, and veteran corps of players on both sides of the
line. They’re also the team where many a
veteran wants to go, feeling that Foxboro is their best chance for a
championship. Their schedule to begin is
a bit rough. Without Harrison, they have
to play three teams that enjoy passing, at Jets, vs. San
Diego, and at Cincinnati. If they can weather that storm, they’ll
cruise to another AFC East title.
What I’m Sold On: Tom Brady, while perhaps not the best
quarterback in the game, is the smartest.
His passing game has a chance to go more vertical with the additions of
Randy Moss, and, especially Donte Stallworth,
and he’ll have time to find them behind a highly reliable line. Ben Watson is a legitimate threat over the
middle, and Laurence Maroney looks ready to be the
main running back with the departure of Corey Dillon. Heath Evans may be one of the most underrated
players in the league.
What I’m Not: The secondary, especially starting without Rodney
Harrison to start the year, is still this team’s Achilles Heel. Just keep the ball away from Asante
Samuel. Wes Welker has the speed to be a
dangerous return man, but I’m not sure if he’ll get the blocking he needs
downfield to be a gamebreaker. Stephen Gostkowski
had an all right season his rookie year, but kicked made 20 out of 26 FGs.
Prediction: 11-5 record, 1st in AFC East, 2nd
seed in AFC
Miami – The Dolphins have always
been a couple of components short of making a wild card run, but they do have
enough this year to sneak into the playoff.
Outside the division, their toughest stretch comes in back to back weeks
when they visit Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Their final two home games are against Baltimore and Cincinnati. Call this one a gut feeling.
What I’m Sold On: Their front seven is as good as any in the
league, no matter which base they decide to employ. Ted Ginn, Jr. as a
punt and kick returner should pay big dividends,
especially the later the season rolls along.
Ronnie Brown rushed for over 1000 yards last year and still missed 3
games. Trent Green to Marty Booker, or Trent Green to Chris Chambers are calls we should
be hearing all year. The offensive line
kept Joey Harrington fairly safe all year while Green was sacked 24 times in
7.5 games in Kansas City. Improved protection should help.
What I’m Not: Beyond Green and Brown, the Fish aren’t deep at
those positions. The secondary is going
to give them some fits, though maybe practicing against their own offense will
help them improve.
Prediction: 9-7 record, 2nd in AFC East, 6th
seed in AFC
NY Jets – Head
Coach Eric Mangini made a statement when he debuted
last season with New York’s
AFC team. They squeaked into the
playoffs behind Chad Pennington, in seemingly his first full year without
injury, but were annihilated by the Patriots in the first round. The Jets open
at home against hated rival New England, then travel
to Baltimore. These two games alone may set the tone for
the coming season. They also host Philadelphia and travel to Cincinnati
in successive weeks, then, coming off their bye, they host Pittsburgh,
then travel to Dallas.
What I’m Sold On: Chad Pennington will have good protection, now
that their 2006 draft picks are starters.
Justin McCareins is one of the more underrated
receivers in the league. Their front
seven is solid and inside linebacker Jonathan Vilma
is the perennial ProBowler
type. Kicker Mike Nugent is coming a
long way. He made every attempt he was
given in the playoff game against the Patriots.
What I’m Not: Their ground
game is a bit thin, and I’m not sure how long it will take for Derrell Revis to become an impact
player. He was the best player on a
pretty poor Pitt Panther defense, so I’m not sure how that will translate into
the NFL.
Prediction: 7-9
record, 3rd in AFC East, misses playoffs
Buffalo - The Bills are
virtually back to the drawing board. The
other three teams in their division were either better to begin with, or have
made moves to make them better. Buffalo is lagging in
what could be the toughest division this season. Their schedule is a killer. Their first five games are hosting Denver, at Pittsburgh and New England, then hosting the
Jets and the Cowboys. The bye’s looking
pretty good for Jauron’s boys at week 6, huh? Especially when they host Baltimore coming out of
it. They also have to travel to Jacksonville and Philadelphia. This won’t be pretty, but they might pull a
stunner here or there.
What I’m Sold On: Precious little, I’m afraid. Lee Evans is an excellent receiver and
Peerless Price may still have some gas left in his tank. Kicker Rian Lindell was 23 of 25 on field goal attempts last year, his
only two misses coming from beyond 40 yards.
The defensive front seven has a chance to establish themselves,
but many of their starters are young, so that could go either way.
What I’m Not: The secondary is full of question marks, and in a
division that plays Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, and Trent Green twice a year,
that doesn’t help. J.P. Losman put up some fair percentages and averages last
season, but some of his bigger games were ones where they had to throw the
ball. He also doesn’t have much behind
him, both in the backfield or on the depth chart.
Prediction: 6-10 record, 4th in AFC East, misses playoffs
AFC West
The Broncos have had as tumultuous an offseason
as I can remember in recent memory. Even
the Steelers with Big Ben’s motorcycle accident can’t compare, because nobody
actually died. The Broncos saw two
players on their roster pass away since the disappointing end to 2006. Those are the kinds of things that can either
morally crush a team, or spiritually lead them.
Head Coach Mike Shanahan will know how to use it to drive his team. San
Diego’s season similarly ended abruptly, blowing a
late lead against the Patriots in the divisional round (but who didn’t see it
coming?). They still have elite players,
but also a new coach. Kansas
City’s season also ended suddenly; as soon as they took the field
against Indianapolis. The transparent gameplan
allowed the Colts to make sure work of the Chiefs, and they were left to pick
up the pieces. Oakland was the only team in the division to
not have to be quashed in the last minute.
They suffered a slow death, going 2-14.
Nowhere to go but up, right?
Denver
– Despite the deaths of tailback Damien Nash (collapsed following a charity
basketball game) and cornerback Darrent Williams
(shot outside a night club early in the morning after their elimination from
playoff contention), Denver
looks to be ready to make another run.
They have no quarterback controversy this year as Jay Cutler will be
their wunderkind under center. The
receivers look to be as strong as ever.
And Mike Shanahan still mans the helm.
The initial schedule may or may not put the Broncos in a hole, but after
their week 6 bye, there appear to be only a couple of hazards the rest of the
way. Weeks 3, 4, and 5 see Jacksonville come to Invesco,
followed by a trip to Indy, then they welcome San Diego. After the bye, they host the Steelers. They have to travel to Chicago
and will see San Diego
on the road. Other than that, this team
is just too talented to falter.
What I’m Sold On: Jay Cutler didn’t have the best completion
rate, but he did have over 7 yards per pass attempt. The most improvement, they say, is made
between years 1 and 2. The receivers are
pretty much elite. Jason Elam is as money
as kickers come who aren’t named “Vinatieri”. Their secondary is particularly strong, and
now with the late addition of Simeon Rice, it may be just what the doctor
ordered to challenge quarterbacks Rivers, Roethlisberger,
and Manning.
What I’m Not: The front seven looks to be ok, but could still see
some holes. Travis Henry is not a good
replacement for Tatum Bell, and both Henry and Mike Bell are banged up in the
backfield. If Cutler’s only recourse is
to throw, defenses may be more able to jump some routes.
Prediction: 10-6 record, 1st in AFC West, 4th
seed in AFC
San Diego – Norv Turner gets yet another chance to be a head
coach. As an offensive-minded coach, San Diego doesn’t seem to
be a bad fit. LaDainian
Tomlinson is still the darling of fantasy football team owners everywhere and
Philip Rivers acquitted himself well in his first full season with a 92.0 QB
rating. They open hosting Chicago, then traveling
for a rematch with the Patriots. They
also host the Colts, visit the Jaguars, and host the Ravens in consecutive
weeks.
What I’m Sold On: Philip Rivers has show he’s able to find the
open guy. It helps when that open guy is
sometimes Tomlinson. Rivers still has
most of his weapons at his disposal.
Antonio Gates is still a premiere tight end, and the offensive line gave
up only 28 sacks all last year.
What I’m Not: I’m not sure how some of the younger players will
adapt to an all new coaching staff. The
defense has taken a step back. Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo on the left side of the
front seven, but those are the only true threats up front. The secondary is spotty, starting rookie Eric
Weddle at strong safety. Quentin Jammer did not look very good this preseason, so he may get
picked on early. Kicker Nate Kaeding is also not the most reliable place kicker. He’s not bad, but he’ll need to be better as
the season drags on.
Prediction: 9-7 record, 2nd in AFC West, misses playoffs
Kansas City –
Larry Johnson will prove that you can score in bunches as a running back, but
it won’t help your team secure a playoff berth.
Indianapolis
showed that Johnson could be stopped in the wild card round, holding him to 32
yards on 13 attempts. Tony Gonzalez at
tight end is still K.C.’s best receiver, though his
production has been down of late. Damon Huard is now the man under center. He only threw 1 interception in just over 10
games of action in going 6-3 while Trent Green was out. The schedule figures to be a little harder this
year. They’re at Chicago
in week 2 and they play San Diego, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati
in 3 straight weeks. In the second half
of the season, they play Denver twice, San Diego again, and play
at Indy in a five week span.
What I’m Sold On: Damon Huard has shown
he’s able to take care of the ball.
Larry Johnson can make short runs exciting. Both Ty Law and
Patrick Surtain have to be treated with caution,
though they’ve certainly slowed a step from their respective primes. You absolutely can’t leave Tony Gonzalez
open.
What I’m Not: The defense
is not overly impressive. The secondary
is old at the corners, and young at the safeties. KC’s run defense was in the middle of the
pack last season. The Chiefs also have a
rookie kicker, Justin Medlock out of UCLA.
That may very well hurt them when the game is on the line.
Prediction: 6-10 record, 3rd in AFC West, misses playoffs
Oakland – The
worst team in the NFL last season, the Raiders have nowhere to go but up,
right? It kind of makes you wonder if
Randy Moss hadn’t gone to New England what
would have happened had Daunte Culpepper rejoined
with him. As it is, Josh McCown appears to be the starting quarterback. The offensive line must absolutely be better
if the Raiders are to have a chance of winning more than three games. The Raiders scored less than 11 points per
game on average, getting outscored by nearly 2-to-1. They also failed to win a divisional
game. Their final 3 games could be ugly.
They host the Colts, visit the Jaguars, and close out the season at home
against the Chargers. Granted, the
season may already be ugly by that point, but it’s nothing we haven’t seen
before.
What I’m Sold On: Shane Lechler
averaged 47.5 yards per punt. Granted,
he’s had a lot of practice lately, but his coverage gave up a 12.9 yard return
rate. If that improves, field position
battles may turn the Raiders way. I was
a fan of Josh McCown in Arizona, and if he has time, you might see a
McCown/Alvis Whitted
touchdown connection. Their running game
is bolstered with Dominic Rhodes, but their success will have a lot to do with
if the offensive line improves.
What I’m Not: Kicker Sebastian Janikowski
still mysteriously has a job in the NFL.
His best year was in 2004 when he kicked nearly 90% of his
attempts. The last two years, he’s
averaged around 70%. Both aspects of the
defense, up front and in the secondary, are very spotty. Warren Sapp may be the only person who thinks
Warren Sapp is still effective. The
offensive line will actually need to show me something different.
Prediction: 4-12 record, 4th in AFC West, misses playoffs
AFC South
Byron Leftwich is out, David
Garrard is in. For
good. Jacksonville has had success under Garrard,
and this might be the year when they can take advantage of a depleted Colts
team and win the division. Their defense
is among the top units in the league.
The only question mark is their head coaching. The Colts are going to have to work hard to
make sure that they don’t have a Super Hangover that plagued the Steelers last
season. A slow start in this division
means you’re looking up at someone in the standings for the rest of the
haul. Houston has finally cut ties with David
Carr. Matt Schaub
showed some promise in Atlanta, but will he be
the key to get Houston
over the hump? Vince Young showed the
world that he has talent that translates to the NFL, but how will he adapt now
that no one will be surprised? Is he the
next version of Kordell Stewart? Or is he the next step in the evolution of
the quarterback position? Will he
survive the Madden jinx?
Jacksonville
– Jacksonville
finished 2006 with an 8-8 record, probably less than they deserved. Now, there’s no quarterback controversy,
their running backs are healthy again, and their vaunted defense is hungry. Outside of their division, their toughest
games are at Denver in week 3 before their bye,
at New Orleans (the second game of three
consecutive on the road), and they host San
Diego.
What I’m Sold On: Their
front seven is one of the NFL’s elite.
They did well enough last year when they were
banged up. Garrard was a solid backup to
Leftwich. Some argue he should have started the 2005
playoff game in Foxboro which turned into an embarrassment. They’re stacked at running back, with Fred
Taylor nearly ready to hand the reins over to Maurice Jones-Drew. Greg Jones returns at fullback after missing
all of 2006. Their receivers are quietly
one of the better corps in the AFC.
What I’m Not: The secondary can be had. Rashean Mathis is a
star, but they’re starting rookie Reggie Nelson at free safety. Brian Williams at right corner and Gerald Sensabaugh haven’t done anything to establish themselves
yet. Sammy Knight does appear on their
depth chart, though. We have to see if
the loss of center Brad Meester for half the season
does anything to weaken the offensive line and give Garrard less time, and more
opportunities to make a mistake. Can
Jack Del Rio get over himself?
Prediction: 12-4
record, 1st in AFC South, 1st seed in AFC
Indianapolis –
Aside from winning the Superbowl as a 3-seed when
most experts wrote them off because of their run defense, another surprise
emerged. RB Joseph Addai
quickly established himself with a 1,000 yard rushing season. Now, the Colts are depleted in their
secondary and, to a lesser extent, at running back, but they still have Peyton
Manning. They’re now wearing the target
on their back and will face old foes outside of the division like Denver and New England (at home), but will also have to
travel to Baltimore
for a rematch of that dreadfully boring divisional playoff game. The key will still be to win their divisional
games, and the competition level has increased on all 3 fronts.
What I’m Sold On: The entire offense is still a machine. There aren’t quite as many cogs as last year,
but there are certainly enough. The front
seven still figures to make the opposing offense run out of time quicker than
they’d like. Adam Vinatieri
is the best kicker in the league.
What I’m Not: Mike Doss
and Nick Harper are gone. Bob Sanders is
the only one left back there whose name you heard. Behind Addai,
there’s really not another established option.
Prediction: 11-5 record, 2nd in AFC South, 5th
seed in AFC
Houston
– Ahman Green and Samkon Gado, who both started in Green Bay’s backfield last season
are both on the Texans’ depth chart opening 2007. Matt Schaub, a
quarterback who lived in the shadow of Michael Vick the last three years in Atlanta, fills the void
left by former top pick David Carr. Gary
Kubiak tries to put together an offense around a line
that has never been better than questionable since Houston re-entered the league. Their schedule doesn’t seem ungodly difficult
outside of the division. They have to
travel to San Diego. They host New Orleans
coming out of their bye week, and Denver
comes calling.
If the offensive scheme is a good one, though, you might possibly be
looking at Houston on the bubble in the last two
weeks of the season when they travel to Indy and host Jacksonville.
What I’m Sold On: Matt Schaub has some
upside that I don’t think Atlanta
took time to develop. He also has a
couple of go-to guys. Ahman Green has shown he can run behind a spotty line.
What I’m Not: The defense
was nothing spectacular last year, somewhere near the bottom third in yards per
game and even further down in points per game.
The Texans only had 2 games where a running back went for over 100
yards. Kris Brown was having an
off-again year, kicking less than 80% of his field goals.
Prediction: 7-9 record, 3rd in AFC South,
misses playoffs
Tennessee –
The Titans surprised the NFL world by winning 6 of their final 7 games to stay
alive for the playoffs until the bitter end.
A big part of that, outside of Vince Young, was Travis Henry having to
take the bulk of the load for the injured Chris Brown at running back. This year, Tennessee has three games before their bye
week. At Jacksonville, hosting Indianpolis,
and at New Orleans. If they can pull an upset or two there, they
might actually become the surprise team of 2007. Of course, I almost put money on the Madden
jinx now. Neither Kerry Collins nor Tim Rattay will stem the bleeding if and when Vince Young goes
down.
What I’m Sold On: Young is going to replace Michael Vick as the
most exciting player on the field (as long as he’s healthy). The secondary has improved with Nick Harper
coming down Interstate-65 from Indianapolis. Chris Brown and LenDale
White could be a big-time tandem, but they won’t be as potent as Jacksonville’s
Taylor/Drew team.
What I’m Not: No depth at quarterback, as mentioned above. The front seven only made 25 sacks all
season. With some of the quarterbacks
they’ll be facing, that’s not encouraging.
Prediction: 6-10 record, 4th in AFC South,
misses playoffs
AFC North
Baltimore –
This was my grossest miscalculation/underestimation of last season. I remember saying to someone, “I can’t
believe so many experts are picking Baltimore
to win the AFC North. I haven’t decided
whether I’m going to put them third or last.”
Oops. And this team looks even
better this year. Rumors are circulating
that Byron Leftwich may be heading to the roster
which already has Steve McNair and Heisman winner
Troy Smith at QB. The defense is back in
top form, and they’ve got a dangerous return man in B.J. Sams. They have a rough three weeks where they travel
to San Diego, then return home on a short week
to prepare for New England, and then the Colts
come to town. Outside of that, the
defense should be more than good enough to make sure whatever the offense puts
up is sufficient.
What I’m Sold On:
The defense. They recorded 60 sacks (2nd
best), led the league in Interceptions (18), defensive touchdowns (6), and gave
up the fewest yards per game (264.1).
Willis McGahee and Mike Anderson at running
back is much more formidable these days than Jamal
Lewis and Mike Anderson, don’t you think?
Matt Stover is the most reliable kicker in the division.
What I’m Not: McNair’s occasional troubles with health may put
more of the team’s reliance on the defense to win games, but, he got through
last season unscathed.
Prediction: 11-5 record, 1st in AFC North, 2nd
seed in AFC
Pittsburgh –
Last year, all the questions centered around Ben Roethlisberger’s
health, and about the team’s drive for a repeat championship. Now, they center around
their new coach and whether the team can rebound from a virtual flop in
2006. The schedule does them no real
favors. They have to take advantage of
some weaker competition in the first four weeks before hosting Seattle in the “It Don’t Prove a Thing Bowl”,
then their bye week. Coming out of it,
they have consecutive road games in Denver and Cincinnati, then the host
Baltimore. The final five weeks of the
season will either forge this team into a Superbowl
favorite, or destroy them. Hosting Cincinnati (who’s beaten them on home turf the last two
seasons), at New England (who seems to have Pittsburgh’s
number), the home finale with Jacksonville
(who’s won the past 2 meetings), then a trip to St. Louis
just four days after that (Cowher would be crying
foul), then at Baltimore
to close out the season.
What I’m Sold On: Big Ben
has shown the ability to make plays when he has time to do so. Willie Parker has proven to be no fluke. The defense is no worse than it was last
year, and might be a bit better, even without Joey Porter. The Steelers will win at least one game this
year by virtue of all the extra time they’ve put into special teams. The punter alone is a huge upgrade,
especially long term.
What I’m Not: Pittsburgh’s defense has
had trouble in recent years getting off the field on 3rd down. Now 3rd and 1, 3rd and
2, you’ll have that, but giving up 3rd and 8s with regularity is not
a way to keep yourselves rested and win field position battles. The biggest concern is with the offensive
line. Big Ben was sacked nearly 50 times
last year…probably the worst year of his three seasons to take the kind of
abuse. As mentioned before with the
schedule, the line will have to get stronger as the year goes on, or they will
not stand a chance in December.
Prediction: 9-7 record, 2nd in AFC North, misses playoffs
Cincinnati –
The Bengals drew a first-place schedule last year and
lost to both the Patriots and the Colts.
They split the season series with both the Ravens and the Steelers, and
more or less arrived at 8-8. The offense
was still good. The defense had some
issues. The offseason
did not appear to solidify or outright improve those issues. Most of the attention thrown the way of the Queen City
was of the off-field incidents of certain players. That said, after the first four weeks of the
season, where they host Baltimore and New England, and travel to Seattle, the rest of their
schedule looks spread out between the more difficult games and the lighter
games. Their only short week falls
between two non-conference games. If
some semblance of discipline takes hold in this organization, Cincinnati could make a run at the division
again.
What I’m Sold On: Carson Palmer is back without any questions
regarding his health. Rudi Johnson has
quietly rushed for over 4,000 yards in the past 3 seasons at an average of just
over 4 yards a touch. Oh, and Palmer’s
receivers make him even more of a threat.
What I’m Not: The defense has had 72 takeaways in the past two
season, but has ranked in the bottom five in yards per game over the same time
period. Imagine what the Bengals record might have been had they not been the
beneficiaries of so many turnovers.
Kicker Shayne Graham, who is questionable to start the season, had a key
FG miss in Denver that would have locked up a playoff spot, and missed the
potential game winning FG against Pittsburgh in the next game. You gotta make
those kicks, dude. You’re the difference
between an elite team and a pretty good team.
Prediction: 8-8 record, 3rd in AFC North, misses playoffs
Cleveland – Will
For one reason or another, Cleveland turns the ball over entirely too
much. Of the AFC teams to reach the
playoffs, only the Jets had a negative in the giveaway/takeaway differential
(-2). When compared to -13, there’s not
too much doubt that turnovers keep you from winning too many games. The team still has no quarterback, and Jamal
Lewis, on his way down, is not going to be able to carry this offense. Their only hope is that one of these
quarterbacks is able to find a quick rhythm and hit their talented receivers
with regularity. You can’t really look
at the schedule of a team that went 4-12 the previous season and say that “this
stretch will give them trouble”, because they all could. To be fair, the team is healthy, and in the
span of four weeks, Cleveland
will host all three of its division rivals.
If they can take advantage of that, things might start to turn around
for the Browns. Not this year, mind you,
but there is some confidence to be gained by winning a divisional game for the
first time in two seasons.
What I’m Sold On: They may actually have a healthy and reasonably
effective offensive line. Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius
and Kellen Winslow can all catch the ball. Jamal Lewis is still a power back and can hit
the holes if they’re there. Dave Zastudil averaged 44 yards per punt and his coverage only
gave up 7.3 yards per return.
What I’m Not: I don’t see
Charlie Frye getting to the midway point of the season before being replaced,
whether it be by Derek Alexander or Brady Quinn. Switching QBs due
in midseason to ineffectiveness rarely reverses a team’s fortunes (’02
Steelers, anyone?).
Prediction: 4-12 record, 4th in AFC North, misses playoffs
====================
A feeble stab at the playoffs:
Wild Card round: Bears over Cowboys, Saints over Rams, Patriots over
Dolphins, Broncos over Colts
Divisional Round:
Saints over Bucs, Eagles over Bears, Patriots
over Ravens, Jaguars over Broncos
Conference Round:
Saints over Eagles, Patriots over Jaguars
Superbowl: Patriots over Saints